Race 1
The festival gets under way with a pretty low quality race over the banks and I have no strong opinion on this race. Wish Ye Didn't took it last year and he is a warm order to retain his crown. The each way suggestion is Treo Eile for the Slevins at 12/1. He was 4th in this race last year, 20L behind the winner. However, he has been running well in point to points and he took the scalp of the evergreen Sizing Australia last time out. He will relish the ground, he is proven over the fences and at 12/1 he could get closer to Wish Ye Didn't than he did last year.
STEVOS' SELECTION: TREO EILE 12/1 E/W
Race 2
The first of three Grade 1s on the card and Yorkhill looks very short at 1/2. He has looked imperious in taking a hat trick of Grade 1s on his last three starts on ground ranging from heavy to good. The worry is that this race might come a bit too soon after Aintree, and it would be some feat to land 3 Grade 1s in the space of 6 weeks. The drop back to 16f is another slight concern and at his current odds I would be a layer rather than a backer.
Petit Mouchoir has followed a similar route to the favourite, taking in races at both Cheltenham and Aintree, and he had a hard race last time. One horse that appeals as being possibly overpriced is Don't Touch It at 40/1. Jessica Harrington has her string in terrific order and she has been firing in the winners.
This 6yo son of Scorpion has been written off after a poor run on bottomless ground at Naas in a Grade 2, but it was hard not to be impressed by the manner of his maiden hurdle win at Leopardstown on his previous start. He hosed up by 13L on soft ground (16f) and while the 2nd has let the form down it was still a visually impressive performance.
He also has form in the book with A Toi Phil, who was impressive when subsequently beating Acapella Bourgeois in a Grade 2. I think the better ground tomorrow could suit Don't Touch It and with his yard in such good form he looks worthy of a small each way bet at odds of 40/1.
STEVOS' SELECTION: DON'T TOUCH IT 40/1 E/W
RACE 3
This Grade B 2m handicap looks a horrendously tricky puzzle to solve and a case can be made for any amount of them. To Choose sneaks in off a feather weight for Tom Gibney and if he had the benefit of a recent run I would really fancy him. The same applies to Elmono from the shrewd Bramall yard, a gelding that could be chucked in off a mark of 118 given that he was placed in a Listed heat in France.
However, the one think that could be set for a big run at a nice price is Bamako Moriviere, trained by Willie Mullins and owned by Rich Ricci. He hasn't pulled up any trees since joining the Mullins yard from France, but he has yet to encounter decent ground. He was given a strange ride by Ruby Walsh last time,never put in the race, and I got the impression he was thinking of more important days ahead. His sole career start on good ground resulted in a win, and he is completely unexposed on a decent surface. His odds of 20/1 look huge, and he is worthy of each way support in a wide open handicap.
STEVOS' SELECTION: BAMAKO MORIVIERE 20/1 E/W (NB)
RACE 4
The second of the Grade 1s, the Champion Chase, and what a cracking contest it is. Vautour will be looking for redemption after his hiccup at Aintree but his air of invincibility has disappeared and it would be a brave man steaming in at 2/5. If he jumps around he should be too good for this lot, but with 8 runners due to go to post I think a small each way bet at a bigger price is the more sensible option.
God's Own was the one to benefit from Vautour's mishap at Aintree and he is a previous course and distance winner. He is 10/1 and he will be very popular with each way players. However, Simonsig at 11/1 is a fascinating contender. He looked like a potential superstar in the making back in 2013 but injury intervened and he has run just once in 3 years. However, as he has showed with Sprinter Sacre Nicky Henderson is a maestro at getting injured horses back to their best, and if a peak Simonsig shows up he could put it right up to Vautour. He is well worth chancing at 11/1 in what promises to be a fascinating Champion Chase.
STEVOS' SELECTION: SIMONSIG E/W 11/1
RACE 5
This is a really tricky looking bumper as many of the horses have shown their form on bad ground. Conditions will be a lot different today and it is no surprise that good ground winner Jenkins is the odds on favourite for Nicky Henderson. The Jessica Harrington newcomer Loupgarou is by Martaline so he should be fine on the nice ground, and his dam is related to a multiple French listed winner Peldero. Given the form of his yard he is the token each way selection at 14/1.
STEVOS' SELECTION: LOUPGAROU E/W 14/1
RACE 6
The last of the Grade 1s on the opening day is the Champion Novice Chase and for once we don't have a Mullins hotpot dominating the market. Outlander is currently the 7/2 favourite for the champion trainer, but there are no shortage of potential challengers to him in this heat.
The one I like is Zabana, who was cruelly robbed of the chance to run at the festival by Davy Russell getting unseated at the start. He will be eager to make amends and after skipping Aintree he will be a fresh horse. Dunsany trainer Andy Lynch thinks the world of this fella and he really fancied him to run a huge race at Cheltenham. He has won on ground ranging from heavy to good to firm, and his trainer is convinced that a decent surface suits best. I think he can gain deserved compensation this evening and he is the nap of the day at odds of 9/2.
STEVOS' SELECTION: ZABANA 9/2 NAP
RACE 7
I have no strong fancy for this race and I will be sitting it out, hopefully counting all the winnings from my earlier selections...
Great tips today!
ReplyDeleteThanks!!
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