Fridays Festival Fancies

Triumph Hurdle

A race where the last four winners have been out of predominantly flat sires, with Authorized, Azamour, Haafd and Jeremy, the sire of the ill fated Our Conor, responsible. This year the horses at the head of the market are all bred along similar lines.
Beltor is by Authorized, sire of last years winner Tiger Roll, and has been mightily impressive on both his starts over hurdles. I backed him first time out at 16/1, and immediately after I had a small interest on him at 66/1 for this race. That quickly disappeared after he hacked up at Kempton upped in class last time out, and there is every chance he can give rookie trainer Robert Stephens his first festival winner. The run of Modus in the bumper also shows that his horses are in top form and the forecast rain will be no problem for him either. Can still be backed at 7/1 which is more than a fair price.
There are a few likely dangers in the field though, chief among them Peace And Co, unbeaten over hurdles and an easy winner over Starchitect, who did the form no harm with a gutsy fourth yesterday. Any rain will not adversely effect his chances either, with all his wins, including one at Cheltenham, coming on soft ground. He is definitely the biggest threat to the selection.
One at a decent price that could sneak a place is the John Ferguson trained Devilment, available at odds of 20/1. This son of  Cape Cross was placed off 91 on the flat for Godolphin and, as you would expect from one of their horses, has an outstanding pedigree (Dam 2nd in Sagaro Stakes). He has won both his hurdle starts without breaking sweat, and whilst tomorrow will be a different sort of test there is every chance this well bred sort will be up to it. The big negative would have to be the performances of Ferguson's string so far, as many were predicting a strong showing from him at the festival this year. Perhaps his luck will change tomorrow.

Picks: Beltor (nb) 7/1 Devilment e/w 22/1


Vincent O'Brien Hurdle

After seeing the majority of my (confident) handicap selections running less than impressively over the first three days I am now approaching the remaining ones with a degree of trepidation. With the threat of significant rain tonight, I have decided to concentrate on horses that are best with a bit of cut in the ground. The last six winners have been priced at either 10/1 or 20/1 with only one favourite obliging in the previous ten years.The Mullins'  and Paul Nicholls have won 7 of the last 9 runnings of the race, so their entries merit close scrutiny.
The mount of Ruby Walsh, Max Dynamite, has disappointed on his last two runs after winning his maiden easily.That day he raced up with the pace, and the horse he beat into second, Phil's Magic, has subsequently gone on to win a maiden and a listed hurdle. His next two runs he was held up off the pace, and was beaten. Tomorrow I am sure you will see him racing more prominently, and this useful ex flat performer could end up looking very well treated off a mark of 137. Rain no problem, as he managed to come within 3/4 of a length of landing a group 2 at Longchamp on rain softened ground.
Another horse near the foot of the weights that could also run well is Noel Meade's Waxies Dargle, another whose best form has come on soft ground. He won as he should have at Fairyhouse on his penultimate run, before falling four out in the Boylesports Hurdle before Carberry had asked the question. Who knows how he would have gone without the accident, but he could be well treated off 136. The fact McCoy overlooks him may look like a negative to many, but I am guessing the choice was made before the rain was forecast, as it looks to me as if Princely Conn is best on a sound surface.

Picks: Max Dynamite (e/w) 16/1  Waxies Dargle (e/w) 25/1


Albert Bartlett Hurdle

The potato race as Mark Winstanley likes to call it. Again an open heat, with Mullins/Walsh combining again with favourite Black Hercules. However, I would be more keen on stablemate Arbre De Vie, the mount of Paul Townend. This ex French performer has hacked up on both starts in Ireland/UK so far, and on his last French start was beaten a length by Aux Petit Soins, form which has been franked in no uncertain terms earlier this week.That run, as well as both his wins, was on bad ground, and he will relish all the rain forecast for tonight.
Another horse that will appreciate any precipitation is Definitly Red, from the on fire Brian Ellison yard. 3/4 this year he has looked very tough and not short on stamina, characteristics that will stand him in good stead for a test like this. He ran a lovely race in last years bumper at the festival, and could well run into a place, or better, at generous odds.

Pick: Arbre De Vie e/w (20/1) Definitly Red e/w (25/1)


Gold Cup

The big one, and as open a renewal as there ever has been. Silvinaco Conti heads the market, but I can't be having him as I don't think he will get up the hill (again). Previous winner Bobs Worth is a huge price, but the forecast rain will scupper his chance. The same applies to Lord Windemere. One horse the rain will definitely suit though is Coneygree. This trailblazer has been a joy to watch this year, and it is brilliant to see a small yard going into a gold cup with a realistic chance. If the ground turns properly soft I can see him running a huge race. With doubts about so many of his opponents the 10/1 currently available looks a great price.
Another horse that won't mind the heavens opening is the trusty old boy the Giant Bolster, who came within a whisker of winning last year. He always gives his running in this race, and is still only 10 years old, even if it does feel like he's been around forever. At 40/1 he is always worth a small interest in this race, and if he jumps well he will be there or thereabouts at the business end.

Picks: Coneygree (10/1) The Giant Bolster (40/1)

Foxhunter Chase

No strong opinion on this race. Salsify looked to be returning to form last time out and is a tentative selection.

Pick: Salsify 10/1

Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Hurdle

Only one favourite has obliged in the last six renewals and this year it looks a particularly difficult puzzle to solve. One horse that may be overpriced, well treated and that will appreciate any ease in the ground is Kauto Grand Mogul, a half brother to the inimitable Kauto Star. His win on his penultimate run, where he slammed subsequent winner Bosman Rule, was very impressive. His next run was not as good admittedly, but there was an excuse for that and he has since had an operation on his palate. His shrewd handler thinks the world of him, and he could well run a big race at the rewarding odds of 50/1,

Pick: Kauto Grand Mogul (e/w) 50/1


Grand Annual

A race that is all about last years 2nd Ned Buntline. McCoy's last ever Cheltenham ride. Many think he has been laid out for this and it will be a fairytale ending for the champ. I don't do sentiment, and I don't believe in  fairytales either, and I will be opposing the likely favourite.
My idea of the winner of this race is Croco Bay, trained by Ben Case and partnered by Kielan Woods. This horse absolutely demolished a decent field by 19 lengths on soft ground at Ascot in November off a mark of 134. The handicapper reacted accordingly and raised him to 149, and he was put away for the winter, presumably with this race in mind. Ben Case was at one stage  even considering a tilt at the Champion Chase, which shows the regard in which this horse is held, He made his comeback run in Febuary, and showed he can compete off his new career high mark. That pipe opener will have put him cherry ripe for this, and I can see him running a huge race at odds of  25/1.

Pick: Croco Bay e/w (NAP) 25/1